Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 40.668880 44.605596 48.977807 54.238571 60.458089 67.656578 76.739004
2025-02-16 34.822486 40.106364 46.474331 54.892969 66.023556 80.706347 102.446667
2025-02-23 32.441909 38.655947 46.595438 57.868504 74.190675 98.360207 140.266401
2025-03-02 29.484106 35.887125 44.379096 57.023648 76.536077 108.048124 170.310958
2025-03-09 26.997628 33.376638 42.074359 55.504366 77.303941 115.160234 199.398899
2025-03-16 24.481549 30.557500 38.985724 52.302695 74.642947 115.395948 214.256857
2025-03-23 23.480451 29.727580 38.619303 53.171419 78.880296 129.718486 273.448115
2025-03-30 22.207860 28.394717 37.360695 52.407367 80.020992 138.127397 325.127198
2025-04-06 21.158034 27.298269 36.346242 51.893442 81.491920 147.785978 393.764376
2025-04-13 19.783565 25.635839 34.329037 49.439690 78.735965 146.483932 418.361083
2025-04-20 19.471805 25.525578 34.714254 51.195612 84.814134 170.113781 611.334241
2025-04-27 19.062247 25.234384 34.776748 52.366497 89.919684 194.001116 912.991349
2025-05-04 18.451052 24.708248 34.595945 53.435914 96.023895 228.893660 1746.502708
2025-05-11 17.773990 24.057923 34.193831 54.130340 101.836529 270.951618 4735.808425
2025-05-18 17.513801 24.037789 34.848303 57.040742 114.572320 363.634899 NaN
2025-05-25 16.727045 23.104315 33.803789 56.214964 116.635687 408.104112 NaN
2025-06-01 15.925407 22.095495 32.538565 54.729525 116.293445 439.360236 NaN
2025-06-08 14.968025 20.779855 30.628378 51.597417 110.003406 420.225147 NaN
2025-06-15 14.616550 20.452648 30.497726 52.447504 116.923457 523.395449 NaN
2025-06-22 14.090442 19.801894 29.717259 51.699853 118.272614 585.744174 NaN
2025-06-29 13.634149 19.245871 29.074770 51.196882 120.399539 670.280918 NaN
2025-07-06 12.983133 18.329931 27.697911 48.794559 114.870534 642.482338 NaN
2025-07-13 12.853368 18.300276 28.006498 50.513825 125.738162 923.498067 NaN